Florida's Condo Market Predictions for 2025 to 2026: Trends & Investment Outlook
- Ed DiMarco
- 12 hours ago
- 6 min read
The Florida condominium market has long been a barometer for real estate trends, not only in the southeastern United States but across the country. As we look ahead to 2025 and 2026, industry professionals, economists, and investors are closely monitoring several key indicators that could shape the condo market in the Sunshine State.
In this article, we explore the top predictions for Florida's condo market, grounded in expert insights.
1. Continued Demand in Coastal Cities
Florida's coastal cities like Miami, Tampa, Fort Lauderdale, and Naples are expected to continue attracting both domestic and international buyers. With remote work trends persisting and baby boomers retiring in larger numbers, the demand for vacation homes and investment properties remains strong. According to a report from the Florida Realtors Association, the median condo sale price in major metros rose by 8% in 2024 and is expected to see a similar increase through 2025.
2. Inventory Levels Will Normalize
After years of inventory shortages, 2025 may mark the beginning of normalization in the condo market. Several large-scale developments that broke ground in 2022 and 2023 are expected to reach completion by late 2025, which is expected to help ease supply pressure. Florida’s condominium market is undergoing a significant transition, shifting from the rapid appreciation seen in recent years toward a more balanced buyer’s market.
As condos and townhouses are now firmly in buyer’s market territory, at 8.2 months’ supply, we’re seeing more choices and negotiating power for buyers. By the end of 2024, one‑year growth in active listings of condos and townhouses exceeded 11% statewide, fueled by new state‑mandated reserve requirements and slowing buyer demand. As a result, price increases are expected to moderate, giving buyers more leverage and encouraging healthier competition.
According to Realtor.com, Florida had 168,717 properties listed for sale as of February 2025, a 40% increase from the previous year. Zillow also reported that the average home value in Florida dipped by 2.5% over the past year, reaching $387,464, reflecting the market’s shift toward equilibrium.
3. Sales Trends and Market Shifts
Evaluating Condominiums and Single-Family Trends
Single-family sales are projected to increase modestly, while condominium sales are expected to continue their decline. MIAMI Realtors® forecasts a modest 1% increase in single-family home sales in 2025, recovering slightly from the 1.8% decline seen in 2024. However, this increase will be limited due to economic factors such as inflation and rising risks of potential unemployment, which may cause some buyers to delay their purchase decisions.
One of the key factors influencing this trend is affordability. With rising costs, only 14% of renter households can afford a single-family home or condominium/townhome in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metro area. For instance, to afford a single-family home in Southeast Florida’s counties in 2025, the required household income is $168,000 (assuming a 10% down payment). In comparison, the required income for a condominium or townhome is more affordable at $96,600.
Condominium sales are expected to continue to decline in 2025 by 9.8%, following a reduction in foreign buyer purchases due to factors like tightened immigration policies and global trade reductions. Condominium sales in several counties have already experienced double-digit declines in early 2025, including:
· Miami-Dade: -14.09%
· Broward: -16.08%
· Palm Beach: -3.14%
· Martin: -17.81%
· St. Lucie: -8.87%
However, there is potential relief on the horizon. Several bills currently in front of the Florida Legislature, such as increasing the homestead exemption and allowing associations to access lines of credit, could provide financial relief for condo owners, potentially stabilizing the condo market by 2026.
April 2025 Market Snapshot
Florida's housing market continued to show signs of stabilization. According to Florida Realtors, closed sales of existing condos and townhouses across the state declined 0.7% year-over-year in March 2025, while the median sale price increased by 2.1% to $335,000. Inventory levels rose 38% year-over-year, and the average time to contract lengthened to 48 days. Active listings have returned to pre-pandemic levels, and sellers are increasingly offering concessions. This normalization supports a healthier environment for buyers seeking value and options in a less frenzied marketplace.
4. Insurance and HOA Costs on the Rise
One of the significant challenges that could affect condo affordability is the rising cost of insurance and homeowners association (HOA) fees. In the wake of increasing hurricane risks and recent legislative changes, insurance premiums have surged across Florida. These costs are typically passed on to condo owners, making some properties less appealing to budget-conscious buyers.
According to data compiled in early 2025, these are the median monthly HOA fees for condos, along with their year-over-year changes:
Highlights for Buyers & Investors
Lakeland and Tallahassee show the sharpest increases in HOA fees but remain relatively affordable, offering growth potential. Naples and Key West continue to command the highest fees, reflecting their premium markets. Homosassa Springs and Pensacola present possible bargains with reduced HOA costs in 2025.
Investors targeting strong rental markets may find value in Orlando, Sebastian, and Cape Coral, where fee increases mirror infrastructure investments and demand.
5. Stricter Condo Regulations Post-Surfside
Following the tragic Surfside condominium collapse in 2021, Florida implemented new safety and structural inspection regulations. These reforms, while necessary, require older buildings to invest in upgrades and regular assessments. As a result, buyers may gravitate toward newer developments that already meet the updated codes, driving demand in that segment.
6. Shifts in International Investment
While international travel has resumed post-pandemic, economic and geopolitical factors may influence where foreign investors choose to buy. Florida remains a favored destination for Canadian, Latin American, and European buyers. However, changes in currency exchange rates and interest rates in their home countries could either bolster or dampen their purchasing power.
7. Technology and Virtual Sales Channels
With advancements in virtual tours, blockchain transactions, and AI-driven property management tools, the buying and selling process is more accessible than ever. Florida real estate agents and developers are increasingly integrating these technologies, making condo investments more appealing to tech-savvy millennials and Gen Z buyers.
8. Sustainable and Resilient Construction
Sustainability is more than a buzzword—it's becoming a key factor in buyer decision-making. Eco-friendly condo developments with energy-efficient systems, solar panels, and green building certifications are gaining traction. Furthermore, resilience against climate-related threats such as flooding and hurricanes will play a crucial role in buyer preferences and property valuation.
9. The Potential Impact of Tariffs on the Condo Market
One under-discussed factor that may affect the Florida condo market in 2025 is the implementation or continuation of tariffs on imported construction materials. Should tariffs increase on items such as steel, aluminum, and lumber, developers may face higher building costs. These expenses could be passed on to buyers through higher condo prices, particularly in new developments.
Additionally, tariff-induced supply chain disruptions could delay project completions, exacerbating short-term inventory issues. Buyers and investors should keep an eye on U.S. trade policy developments, as these economic levers may influence project timelines, affordability, and overall market sentiment.
10. Looking Ahead: Florida Condo Market Outlook for 2026
By 2026, the Florida condo market is expected to stabilize, provided there are no significant economic shocks or policy changes. Analysts predict that inventory levels will align more closely with demand, and pricing growth may moderate to around 3–5% annually.
Redfin forecasts that the U.S. median home-sale price will increase by 4% in 2025, and Florida is expected to meet or exceed that rate due to sustained population growth and limited new housing supply. Miami’s median home price reached $632,000 in early 2025—a 5.3% increase year-over-year—showing resilience in premium markets.
Buyers will likely continue to prioritize newer, safer, and more sustainable units, especially in cities with robust infrastructure and economic growth. Demand from out-of-state buyers and international investors is expected to remain strong, bolstered by Florida’s tax advantages and lifestyle appeal.
However, increased operational costs due to insurance, maintenance, and compliance requirements could challenge affordability, especially in aging buildings. Strategic investments in well-managed properties and emerging neighborhoods could offer the best returns through 2026 and beyond.
Conclusion: Strategic Insights for Buyers, Sellers, and Investors
The Florida condo market in 2025–2026 offers both challenges and opportunities. After a phase of rapid price growth, the market is rebalancing toward equilibrium, with price gains moderating and inventory rising. Buyers should leverage increased negotiating power in buyer’s markets like Broward and Palm Beach counties. At the same time, investors may find value in under‑$400,000 units in high‑demand pockets, according to MIAMI REALTORS®, Norada Real Estate.
Sellers planning for 2026 should time listings to coincide with spring buying seasons and highlight value‑adding features such as flood mitigation measures and energy‑efficient upgrades. By staying informed on interest rate trends, insurance cost developments, regional supply shifts, and international trade factors such as tariffs, stakeholders can navigate the evolving landscape with confidence.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Article By: Ed DiMarco MS, MA
Ed DiMarco is an experienced real estate expert specializing in luxury rentals, investment properties, and commercial real estate. With a strong foundation in Florida’s market and a background in Business Management and Communication, Ed combines analytical expertise with a tailored approach to each deal. Whether you're renting, purchasing, or investing in Naples or throughout the state, Ed offers valuable guidance to navigate Florida's dynamic real estate market.