Ed DiMarco MS, MA
- Jul 28
- 6 min read

Florida Housing Market Predictions for 2024

The Florida housing market has experienced significant fluctuations recently, influenced by economic conditions, demographic shifts, and legislative changes. As we look towards 2024, understanding the market dynamics is crucial for buyers and sellers. This article comprehensively analyzes the latest data and forecasts for Florida's housing market in 2024.

Florida Real Estate Market Overview

Recent Performance and Trends

Florida's housing market has seen notable activity in the past year. As of June 2024, 32,810 residential properties were sold, marking a 13.6% decrease from the 37,964 sales recorded in June 2023. This decline reflects broader economic trends and adjustments following the post-pandemic surge in real estate activity.

Key Market Data (June 2024)

Closed Sales: 32,810 (down 13.6% year-over-year)
Cash Sales: 11,260 (down 18.0% year-over-year)
Median Sale Price: $393,990 (up 1.5% year-over-year)
Average Sale Price: $565,371 (up 4.5% year-over-year)
Dollar Volume: $18.5 billion (down 9.7% year-over-year)
Median Percent of Original List Price: 95.9% (down 1.2% year-over-year)
Median Time to Contract: 39 days (up 44.4% year-over-year)
Median Time to Sale: 81 days (up 17.4% year-over-year)
New Pending Sales: 32,909 (down 5.9% year-over-year)
New Listings: 45,596 (up 5.9% year-over-year)
Pending Inventory: 49,681 (down 3.9% year-over-year)
Active Inventory: 165,329 (up 71.2% year-over-year)
Months Supply of Inventory: 5.4 months (up 80.0% year-over-year)

Predictions for Florida Home Prices

Stability and Modest Growth

Experts predict that home prices in Florida will remain relatively stable, with modest growth expected. The median sale price has already shown a 1.5% increase year-over-year, and this trend is likely to continue. While some areas may see slight declines due to increased inventory, home prices are expected to grow by about 3% to 5% annually from 2024 onwards.

Will Florida Home Prices Rise in 2024?

Florida home prices are expected to see modest growth in 2024. According to market forecasts, the median sale price for homes in Florida has already shown a 1.5% increase year-over-year as of June 2024. This trend will likely continue, with experts predicting a 3% to 5% annual growth rate. Factors contributing to this growth include the ongoing demand from new residents moving to the state, particularly retirees and remote workers, drawn by Florida's favorable climate, tax benefits, and quality of life. Additionally, the steady influx of new residents is expected to sustain housing demand, supporting price increases.

However, while prices are expected to rise, increasing inventory levels and high mortgage rates might dampen the growth rate. The active inventory in Florida has seen a substantial increase, providing more options for buyers and potentially alleviating some upward pressure on prices. Furthermore, the stabilization and potential decrease in mortgage rates by mid-2024 could make home-buying more affordable, supporting steady demand but potentially moderating price growth. Overall, while home prices in Florida are anticipated to rise in 2024, the increase may be more modest compared to previous years.

Is 2024 a Good Year to Buy a House?

2024 could be a favorable year to buy a house, particularly for buyers looking to take advantage of stabilizing mortgage rates and increasing inventory. After peaking in 2023, mortgage rates are expected to stabilize and potentially decrease slightly by mid-2024, making home buying more affordable for many prospective buyers. This stabilization in mortgage rates can reduce the monthly cost of owning a home, making it a more attractive option for those waiting on the sidelines due to high borrowing costs.

Additionally, the increase in housing inventory in Florida, which has risen by 71.2% year-over-year as of June 2024, provides buyers with more options and reduces competition. This expanded inventory means buyers have a better chance of finding a home that meets their needs without engaging in bidding wars, which have been common in recent years. Moreover, the slight moderation in home prices and the availability of more properties can create a more balanced market, giving buyers more negotiating power. Therefore, with favorable mortgage rates and a growing inventory, 2024 presents an excellent opportunity for those considering purchasing a home.

Will There Be a Housing Recession in 2024?

While there are some concerns about a slowdown in the housing market, experts do not widely expect a full-blown housing recession in 2024. The housing market is projected to experience stabilization rather than a sharp decline. Factors such as rising interest rates and increased housing inventory might slow the price increases, but they are not anticipated to lead to a significant market downturn. The strength of the labor market and robust lending standards should help prevent a repeat of the 2008 housing crash scenario.

Moreover, demand for housing remains strong, particularly in attractive markets like Florida, which continue to draw new residents. The expected stabilization of mortgage rates and slight price adjustments should make homes more affordable for buyers, sustaining market activity. While there might be a cooling off from the intense activity seen in recent years, a housing recession characterized by widespread price declines and a significant drop in sales is unlikely. Instead, the market will likely see more balanced conditions with modest growth.

Are Florida House Prices Dropping?

As of mid-2024, Florida house prices have not been dropping; they have shown a modest increase. The median sale price for homes in Florida increased by 1.5% year-over-year to $393,990 in June 2024. This indicates that while the price growth rate may have slowed compared to previous years, prices are still upward. The increase in housing inventory and stabilization of mortgage rates contribute to this more measured price growth.

However, the market is experiencing a shift towards more balanced conditions. The substantial rise in active inventory, which increased by 71.2% year-over-year, provides more options for buyers and reduces the pressure on prices to rise rapidly. While there are no indications of significant price drops, the rate of price increases is expected to moderate, providing a more stable and sustainable market environment. Thus, while house prices in Florida are not dropping, they are growing slower, reflecting a move towards a more balanced market.

Interest Rates and Economic Impact

Mortgage Rate Trends

Mortgage rates have been a significant factor in the recent housing market dynamics. After peaking in 2023, mortgage rates are expected to stabilize and potentially decrease slightly by mid-2024. This stabilization could make home-buying more affordable and support steady demand in the housing market. However, high interest rates have already impacted buyer affordability, which could temper demand and lead to slower price increases.

Inventory and Supply Dynamics in Florida

Increasing Supply

The active inventory in Florida has seen a substantial increase, rising by 71.2% year-over-year to 165,329 units in June 2024. This supply increase provides more options for buyers and is expected to help balance the market. As more homes become available, the competition among buyers may decrease, leading to more stable prices.

Cash Sales Decline

Cash sales accounted for 34.3% of all closed sales in June 2024, down from 36.2% in June 2023. This decline in cash sales indicates a shift in buyer demographics and financing methods, potentially reflecting tighter lending standards and higher interest rates.

Demographic and Migration Trends in Florida

Continued Influx of Residents

Florida continues to attract new residents due to its favorable climate, tax benefits, and quality of life. This steady influx of migrants, especially retirees and remote workers, is expected to sustain housing demand. The National Association of Home Builders reports that a significant portion of new single-family construction is occurring in the South, which includes Florida, indicating ongoing development to meet this demand.

Regional Variations Across Florida

Regional Differences

While overall trends provide a general outlook, regional variations within Florida will be crucial. South Florida, for instance, continues to show tight inventory levels and high prices, whereas suburban areas around major cities like Tampa and Jacksonville are experiencing more balanced conditions. These regional differences will influence local market dynamics and opportunities for buyers and sellers.

Conclusion

The Florida housing market is poised for moderate growth and stability in 2024. While challenges such as high mortgage rates and affordability issues remain, strong demand driven by migration and favorable economic conditions will likely support continued regional investment. Buyers can expect more inventory and potentially more favorable buying conditions as mortgage rates stabilize, while sellers may need to adjust pricing strategies to align with market realities.